Over at ESPN, Bill Barnwell has put together the odds the Eagles win the Super Bowl and what needs to happen for them to get there:
FPI chances to win Super Bowl LII: 19.5 percent
It's fair to say that the Football Power Index is overestimating Philly's chances with Wentz on injured reserve, but remember that home-field advantage is very valuable. The initial difference between Foles and Wentz on the Vegas line amounted to four points, although I suspect it has gone up to six or even seven given how Foles has played over the past month. Consider that the shorthand for home-field advantage in Vegas (borne out by my research) amounts to 2.5 to three points, making the value of playing a game at home as opposed to on the road between five and six points.
Foles isn't going to be Wentz, but the comparison is irrelevant at this point. If he can just be the guy from Week 15, when he threw for 237 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants, the Eagles should be OK. It's hardly out of the question that Foles shows up and looks better with a week of extra practice time against the Falcons, who ranked 19th in pass defense DVOA this season. The Giants were 20th. The Eagles still have a great defense, and there's a decent chance they'll be at home facing Case Keenum in the NFC Championship Game.
And yet, unlike the five teams ahead of them on this list, I can't put the Eagles any higher because they aren't going to be favored in a game the rest of the way. Foles & Co. will be underdogs against any non-Titans team in the Super Bowl and would likely be a double-digit underdog against the Patriots or Steelers. Teams have managed to pull this off before -- the 1990 Giants won a Super Bowl with Jeff Hostetler entering the lineup in December -- but the odds are against the Eagles.
What would help: The Titans beating the Patriots. This will be a popular request from our playoff teams, but given that the Eagles are likely to be modest underdogs throughout the NFC playoffs, eliminating a top seed from the AFC takes away one of the power teams that would represent a possible Super Bowl blowout scenario.
Source: ESPN · Photo Credit: Keystone Press Agency